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Scenario 4 Highly likely

Corporate Sovereignty

Tier 2: Highly Likely

Economic -3
Social -3
Political -4
Existential -2

A small number of AI corporations will accumulate economic and political power that rivals or exceeds that of nation-states. Their control over critical AI infrastructure will give them effective veto power over government policy, not through formal political channels but through the structural dependency of economies and institutions on their systems.